Important: TQQQ, SOXL, and UPRO are 3x leveraged ETFs that can lose 70-90% of their value in a single bear market. This article is educational and does not constitute financial advice.
SOXL is up 353.4% year to date through May 26, 2026 (Dividend.com). That number is attracting exactly the kind of attention it always attracts - retail investors who see a chart going vertical and want in. The same thing happened in 2021, when SOXL was up 118% for the year heading into December. What followed was an 85.67% drawdown over the next twelve months.
This is not an argument against SOXL. It is an argument for understanding what you are buying before the chart makes the decision for you.
This guide compares TQQQ, SOXL, and UPRO on the metrics that actually matter for anyone considering a position: what they track, how they have performed over full market cycles, how badly they have fallen and how long recovery took, and which profile of investor each one actually fits.
Meet Three Investors
Before the data, three investors whose situations will anchor the comparison.
Priya is 34, holds a diversified portfolio, and wants targeted technology exposure through a leveraged ETF. She has a 15-year horizon, has lived through the 2022 drawdown in her equity portfolio, and held without selling. She wants to know whether TQQQ or SOXL gives her better risk-adjusted exposure to the AI cycle.
James is 47, primarily holds an S&P 500 index fund, and wants a small leveraged position to enhance returns without concentrating in any single sector. He has a moderate risk tolerance and a 10-year horizon.
Wei is 29, works in the semiconductor industry, has strong conviction in the chip cycle, and is considering SOXL based on its 2026 performance. He has never held a leveraged ETF through a significant drawdown.
What Each Fund Actually Tracks
The three funds are built on three different indices, and understanding that difference is the first step.
TQQQ - ProShares UltraPro QQQ seeks 3x the daily return of the Nasdaq-100 Index - 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq. The index is technology-heavy but not technology-only: it includes communication services, consumer discretionary, and healthcare alongside its dominant tech weighting. Top holdings as of 2026 include Nvidia (5.42%), Apple (4.70%), Microsoft (3.56%), Amazon (2.59%), and Meta (2.26%). The Magnificent 7 collectively represent over 40% of the index.
SOXL - Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares seeks 3x the daily return of the ICE Semiconductor Index - a pure-play semiconductor exposure. No consumer staples, no healthcare, no software companies that happen to use chips. The holdings are chip designers, manufacturers, and equipment makers: Nvidia, TSMC, AMD, Broadcom, ASML, Applied Materials. If semiconductors fall, SOXL has nowhere to hide within its index.
UPRO - ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 seeks 3x the daily return of the S&P 500 - 500 of the largest US companies across all sectors. It is the most diversified of the three, with exposure to financials, healthcare, industrials, and consumer staples alongside technology. It is also the least concentrated bet: no single theme dominates its underlying index the way AI dominates SOXL’s.
The choice between them is fundamentally a choice about concentration. SOXL is the most concentrated - one sector, one cycle. TQQQ is concentrated in large-cap tech-adjacent growth. UPRO is the broadest, accepting lower expected returns in exchange for less single-thesis risk.
The Numbers That Actually Matter
All data verified from public sources as of late May 2026.
Snapshot Comparison
| Metric | TQQQ | SOXL | UPRO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Underlying Index | Nasdaq-100 | ICE Semiconductor | S&P 500 |
| Expense Ratio | 0.95% | 0.75% | 0.92% |
| AUM | ~$36B | ~$11B | ~$4B |
| Inception | Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | Jun 2009 |
| 10-Year CAGR | ~42% | ~60% | ~29% |
| Max Drawdown (since inception) | 81.7% | 90.46% | 76.82% |
| Recovery from Max Drawdown | ~486 trading sessions | 842 trading sessions | 202 trading sessions |
| 2022 Annual Return | -79% | -85.67% | -56.85% |
| 2026 YTD (late May) | +59% | +353% | ~+30% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 3.29 | 4.20 | ~3.0 |
| Correlation to each other | TQQQ/UPRO: 0.90-0.95 | TQQQ/SOXL: 0.83-0.86 | UPRO/TQQQ: 0.90-0.95 |
Sources: PortfoliosLab, FinanceCharts.com, MyPlanIQ, May 2026. SOXL 10-year CAGR from PortfoliosLab (60.45%) and averageannualreturn.com (58.34%) - the gap reflects different start dates and dividend treatment; both sources confirm SOXL’s 10-year outperformance over TQQQ and UPRO in absolute terms.
The 10-year CAGR numbers are extraordinary across all three. The recovery periods are what deserve the most attention.
SOXL’s 90.46% maximum drawdown required 842 trading sessions - approximately 3.4 years - to recover. UPRO’s worst drawdown of 76.82% recovered in only 202 trading sessions - because the S&P 500’s 2020 COVID crash was followed by one of the most rapid recoveries in market history. TQQQ’s 2022 drawdown of 81.7% took approximately 486 trading sessions to recover.
Recovery time matters as much as drawdown depth. A 90% loss that takes 3.4 years to recover is qualitatively different from a 77% loss that takes less than a year.
Year-by-Year: How They Have Behaved in the Same Market
| Year | TQQQ | SOXL | UPRO | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | +134% | +231.82% | ~+93% | Semiconductor supercycle + broad bull |
| 2020 | +110% | +70.02% | ~+80% | COVID crash + fast recovery |
| 2021 | +83% | +118.85% | +98.64% | Late bull market |
| 2022 | -79% | -85.67% | -56.85% | Rate shock bear market |
| 2023 | +198% | +227.03% | +68.54% | AI-driven Nasdaq recovery |
| 2024 | +58% | -12.31% | +63.57% | Choppy semiconductor year |
| 2025 | +34% | +54.91% | ~+30% | Moderate bull |
| 2026 YTD | +59% | +353% | ~+30% | Semiconductor AI surge |
Sources: FinanceCharts.com, PortfoliosLab, Yahoo Finance. UPRO 2019-2020 and 2025 are approximate.
The 2026 YTD divergence is striking and instructive. SOXL is up 353.4% while UPRO is up approximately 30%. This reflects a semiconductor-specific cycle - AI infrastructure buildout, datacenter demand, and chip supply normalization combining in a single sector at the same time. It is not a broad market phenomenon.
The 2024 data tells a story most investors overlook. While TQQQ gained 58% and UPRO gained 63.57%, SOXL fell 12.31% - because the semiconductor index moved sideways to slightly positive, and daily rebalancing decay amplified that into a negative year. The underlying index gained only about 4% in 2024, but SOXL lost 12.31% from volatility decay compounding in a choppy year. An investor who held SOXL through 2024 while watching TQQQ and UPRO gain 58% and 64% was living through the real cost of concentrated leveraged exposure in a non-trending environment.
The Volatility Decay Reality Check
All three funds suffer from volatility decay - the mathematical erosion that occurs when daily resets compound in choppy, directionless markets. But the magnitude differs significantly because their underlying indices have different volatility profiles.
SOXL’s beta of 4.20 versus the S&P 500 is the key number. Semiconductors are a cyclical industry subject to inventory cycles, export restrictions, demand shocks, and rapid technology transitions. The chip sector can fall 35-50% in a downturn - and SOXL at 3x leverage translates that into 90% losses.
A practical illustration: in 2022, when the semiconductor index fell approximately 46%, SOXL fell 85.67%. The additional 39 percentage points of loss came from volatility decay. The unleveraged semiconductor index needed roughly a 54% gain to recover its 2022 drawdown. SOXL needed approximately 600%.
The 2024 example adds further clarity. SOXX (the unleveraged semiconductor ETF) gained approximately 13% in 2024. SOXL lost 12.31% in the same year. That 25 percentage point gap is pure volatility decay operating in a year without a strong trend.
For Priya, this comparison matters directly. She wants leveraged tech exposure, but the question is whether she wants concentrated semiconductor exposure (SOXL) or broad large-cap tech exposure (TQQQ). The difference is not just in recent performance - it is in the failure mode during downturns and the recovery requirement afterward.
The 2026 SOXL Situation
SOXL’s 353.4% YTD return through May 26, 2026 (Dividend.com) deserves specific attention because it is the primary reason many investors are looking at this comparison right now.
The semiconductor sector has been the trade of 2026. AI infrastructure buildout has driven unprecedented chip demand, Nvidia’s continued dominance, and a broad re-rating of the semiconductor supply chain. SOXL, at 3x leverage, has amplified every day of that upward trend.
The same math that produced those gains produced the 90% drawdown in 2022 and the -12.31% return in 2024 despite the underlying sector barely moving. Nothing about how SOXL is built has changed.
Wei, the 29-year-old with semiconductor industry conviction, faces exactly this decision. His sector knowledge is genuine. The 2026 performance is real. But entering a position at +353% YTD means entering after the bulk of a specific trend has already materialized - and doing so in an instrument where the downside mechanism is identical to the upside mechanism, only inverted. His 2024 counterpart who bought SOXL at similar enthusiasm levels after a strong prior year ended that calendar year down 12.31% while TQQQ was up 58%.
Concentration Risk: The Structural Difference
The three funds represent three meaningfully different concentration bets.
UPRO is the broadest. 500 companies across 11 sectors means no single industry can produce a fund-level catastrophe on its own. The trade-off is that UPRO cannot match the upside of a single-sector surge. Its 10-year CAGR of approximately 29% is meaningfully lower than TQQQ’s 42% or SOXL’s ~60%.
TQQQ sits in the middle. The Nasdaq-100 is technology-heavy but not semiconductor-only. During periods when the broader tech sector performs well - which has been most periods since 2010 - TQQQ captures that performance at 3x. During technology-specific downturns, it falls hard but typically recovers faster than SOXL because the Nasdaq-100 has broader earnings support.
SOXL is the most concentrated bet available in a major leveraged ETF. Every dollar in SOXL is a bet that semiconductors will trend upward, with no diversification across sectors, themes, or business models. When semiconductors are in a supercycle - as they have been in 2023, 2025, and 2026 - SOXL generates returns that TQQQ and UPRO cannot approach. When semiconductors enter a correction or a choppy sideways period - as happened in 2024 - SOXL’s losses are commensurately severe even when the underlying sector is not in a major decline.
The Correlation Trap
One nuance that matters for portfolio construction: all three funds are highly correlated with each other during stress events - and the 2022 data makes this concrete.
In normal bull market conditions, the correlations look manageable. TQQQ and UPRO carry a correlation of 0.90-0.95. TQQQ and SOXL carry a 0.83-0.86 correlation. Those numbers suggest some diversification benefit from holding different funds. The 2022 bear market showed what actually happens when the correlation matters most.
In 2022, all three funds fell simultaneously and severely: TQQQ -79%, SOXL -85.67%, UPRO -56.85%. An investor who held both TQQQ and SOXL hoping for diversification experienced a combined portfolio loss worse than holding TQQQ alone in dollar terms, because SOXL’s deeper decline dragged the combined position lower. There was no rebalancing benefit - both funds were falling together, driven by the same factor: rising real interest rates compressing valuations on high-multiple growth assets across the board. Semiconductor stocks were not falling for semiconductor-specific reasons. They were falling because all long-duration growth assets were falling.
In 2026, SOXL is up 353% while UPRO is up ~30% - which looks like diversification working. But that divergence is driven by a sector-specific AI tailwind, not by genuinely uncorrelated underlying factors. In the next rising-rate or risk-off environment, the same convergence toward correlated losses will repeat.
This is the correlation trap in practice. The funds look different when individual sectors diverge in bull markets. They look nearly identical when liquidity contracts, rates rise, or broad risk-off selling sweeps all equity categories simultaneously - exactly the conditions when diversification would be most valuable.
The practical implication: holding two or three leveraged ETFs does not build a diversified portfolio. It builds a concentrated leveraged equity position with additional complexity. Choose one fund whose underlying index best matches your thesis, size it appropriately within a portfolio that includes genuinely non-correlated assets, and do not confuse sector-level differences between leveraged instruments for portfolio-level risk reduction.
Who Each Fund Is Actually For
UPRO fits investors who want leveraged equity exposure with the broadest possible diversification and no sector thesis. James is the natural UPRO investor - he wants to amplify his existing broad market exposure, not make a concentrated technology bet. UPRO’s lower volatility relative to the other two, its fastest historical recovery from drawdowns (202 trading sessions), and its lower concentration risk make it the most defensible long-term leveraged holding. The 10-year CAGR of approximately 29% is lower - but the behavioral sustainability of holding through drawdowns is higher when those drawdowns are less severe and shorter.
TQQQ fits investors with genuine conviction in large-cap technology as a multi-decade growth driver and the behavioral resilience to hold through 80% drawdowns. Priya’s profile fits: long horizon, technology conviction, proven resilience through the 2022 cycle. The risk is that concentrated technology exposure has historically experienced deep, multi-year bear markets - the Nasdaq-100 fell 83% from 2000-2002 and did not recover its 2000 peak until 2016.
SOXL fits a small tactical position by investors with genuine semiconductor sector expertise, a specific view on the chip cycle, a short-to-medium time horizon, and an explicit exit strategy. It is not a long-term core holding. For Wei, the honest question is whether his semiconductor industry knowledge gives him genuine insight into when the current cycle is peaking - or whether he is being pulled in by the 353% YTD chart in the same way investors in late 2021 were pulled in by that year’s 118% performance before the 85.67% drawdown.
The Verdict: One Number to Anchor Each Decision
The year-by-year table contains everything needed to make this decision, but one number from each fund’s history summarizes the risk most clearly.
For SOXL: 842 trading sessions to recover from its worst drawdown. That is 3.4 years of holding a position that lost 90% of its value before recovering. Most investors discover they cannot do this when they are in the middle of it, not before.
For TQQQ: 486 trading sessions and an 81.7% maximum drawdown. Better than SOXL, still severe. The Nasdaq-100’s broader base means the underlying index recovers faster and more reliably than a single-sector instrument.
For UPRO: 202 trading sessions from its worst drawdown. The fastest recovery of the three, driven by the S&P 500’s diversification and the particularly sharp 2020 rebound. The 29% 10-year CAGR is the cost of that lower-severity profile.
The right question is not which fund returned the most over the past 10 years. It is which recovery period you could genuinely hold through without selling. Answer that honestly, then size accordingly.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All performance data from verified public sources: PortfoliosLab (correlation data, drawdown data, recovery sessions, beta figures), FinanceCharts.com (annual returns by year, CAGR figures), averageannualreturn.com (SOXL 10yr CAGR alternative figure), MyPlanIQ (TQQQ since-inception data), TotalRealReturns.com (SOXL YTD), QuantFlowLab (SOXL ETF review, March 2026). SOXL 2022 annual return (-85.67%), 2024 (-12.31%), 2025 (+54.91%), 2019 (+231.82%), 2020 (+70.02%), 2021 (+118.85%) from FinanceCharts.com. UPRO 2021 (+98.64%), 2022 (-56.85%), 2023 (+68.54%), 2024 (+63.57%) from FinanceCharts.com. SOXL max drawdown (90.46%, 842 trading sessions) and UPRO max drawdown (76.82%, 202 trading sessions) from PortfoliosLab. SOXL beta (4.20) from PortfoliosLab. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Leveraged ETFs involve significant risk of capital loss. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which is better long-term: TQQQ or SOXL? Over a 10-year period, SOXL’s CAGR (~60%) exceeds TQQQ’s (~42%), but SOXL’s maximum drawdown (90.46%) and recovery period (842 trading sessions) are significantly worse. The 5-year CAGR comparison, which includes the 2022 drawdown and the 2024 negative year (-12.31% for SOXL), shows SOXL (~41%) and TQQQ (~43%) nearly equal - meaning SOXL’s higher long-term average is largely driven by favorable cycle timing. Risk-adjusted, TQQQ has been the stronger long-term hold for most investors.
Why is SOXL up 353% in 2026 while UPRO is only up ~30%? Because they track completely different indices. SOXL tracks a pure semiconductor index, which has been driven by AI infrastructure buildout and chip demand in 2026. UPRO tracks the full S&P 500, where gains have been more broadly distributed. The same divergence operated in reverse in 2024: SOXL fell 12.31% while UPRO gained 63.57%, because the semiconductor sector had a choppy year while the broader market was strong.
Is SOXL safe to buy after its 2026 gains? “Safe” is not the right frame for any 3x leveraged ETF. The relevant question is whether the semiconductor cycle that drove SOXL’s 353% YTD gain will continue, plateau, or reverse - and whether the investor has a defined exit strategy if the answer is the third option. Entering SOXL at +353% YTD means entering after most of the 2026 semiconductor trend has already materialized. The 2024 investor who bought SOXL after a strong 2023 (+227%) ended that year down 12.31%.
Can I hold TQQQ, SOXL, and UPRO together for diversification? The diversification benefit is limited. TQQQ and UPRO carry a 0.90-0.95 correlation. TQQQ and SOXL carry a 0.83-0.86 correlation that converges toward 1.0 during market stress. Holding all three does not meaningfully reduce risk. Choose the fund whose underlying index best matches your thesis and size it appropriately within a broader diversified portfolio.
What happened to SOXL holders who bought in 2021? SOXL returned +118.85% in 2021 before falling 85.67% in 2022. Recovery to the prior high took 842 trading sessions, approximately 3.4 years. Investors who bought near the 2021 peak and held through the entire cycle eventually recovered their capital. Investors who sold during the drawdown locked in permanent losses.
Why does UPRO have a lower 10-year CAGR than TQQQ if both are 3x leveraged? Because they track different underlying indices. The Nasdaq-100 has outperformed the S&P 500 significantly over the past decade, driven by the dominance of large-cap technology. TQQQ at 3x on a higher-returning index produces a higher leveraged CAGR than UPRO at 3x on a lower-returning but more stable index.
